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| China's Photovoltaic Industry Policy, Market Trends, and Development Strategies and Suggestions |
| Received:March 21, 2025 |
| View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| DOI：10.20237/j.issn.1007-7545.2025.06.003 |
| KeyWord:China's photovoltaic industry; industrial policy; current state of industry; market trends; policy recommendations |
| Author | Institution |
| XIE Yubin |
国务院国资委研究中心，北京 |
| MOU Siyu |
国务院国资委研究中心，北京 |
| WANG Jiang |
国务院国资委研究中心，北京 |
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| Abstract: |
| The Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry has emerged as a global leader in renewable energy over the past decade, driven by significant technological advancements and supportive government policies. However, the industry now faces several critical challenges, including overcapacity, rapid technological iteration, geopolitical tensions, and institutional barriers to grid integration. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the policy trajectory, market dynamics, and technological advancements in China's PV industry, aiming to offer actionable recommendations for sustainable development. The policy evolution of China's PV industry can be divided into three distinct phases: the subsidy-driven period (2009–2018), the adjustment and transformation period (2019–2020), and the market-led period (2021–present). During the subsidy-driven phase, policies such as the “Golden Sun” program and feed-in tariffs significantly stimulate market growth and technological commercialization. However, this phase also leads to issues such as subsidy arrears and overcapacity. The adjustment and transformation period sees policy shifts aimed at addressing these challenges through market-oriented mechanisms, including competitive bidding for project approvals and the gradual reduction of subsidies. The current market-led phase is characterized by policies that promote large-scale distributed PV development, green certificate trading, and the construction of large-scale renewable energy bases, all of which are designed to enhance market competitiveness and sustainability. The analysis reveals several key findings. Despite significant achievements in technological innovation, market size, and export volume, the PV industry is currently undergoing a structural transition from rapid expansion to periodic adjustments. Overcapacity has led to intense price competition and market instability, while rapid technological iterations have caused asset impairment risks. Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, such as tariffs and technical standards, have impeded overseas market expansion. Furthermore, institutional barriers in grid integration and consumption mechanisms pose significant challenges for accommodating the intermittent nature of PV power and integrating distributed PV systems into the existing grid infrastructure. To address these challenges and ensure the industry's sustainable development, a multifaceted approach is necessary. First, optimizing the industrial structure to address overcapacity involves raising industry entry barriers, encouraging technological upgrades, and promoting market-oriented resource allocation. Second, enhancing R&D investment to mitigate technological iteration risks is essential. This includes establishing collaborative innovation chains involving academia, industry, and government to accelerate the commercialization of new technologies and improve the industry's overall technological competitiveness. Third, implementing diversified strategies to expand global markets requires Chinese PV companies to focus on emerging markets, adopt localization strategies, and strengthen international cooperation to navigate trade barriers and geopolitical tensions. Finally, improving power systems to enhance grid integration capacity necessitates the development of advanced grid technologies, flexible market mechanisms, and supportive policies that facilitate the large-scale integration of PV power into the existing grid infrastructure. The research concludes that the sustainable development of China's PV industry hinges on the effective implementation of these policy recommendations. By addressing overcapacity, technological risks, international market challenges, and grid integration issues, China's PV industry can transition from a scale-driven model to one characterized by high-quality, sustainable growth. This transition will not only strengthen China's position as a global leader in renewable energy but also contribute significantly to the global energy transition and the fight against climate change. Future research should focus on the continuous monitoring of policy impacts, technological advancements, and market dynamics to ensure the industry's long-term competitiveness and sustainability. In addition to these findings, the study highlights the importance of continuous policy adaptation and market-oriented reforms in driving the PV industry's evolution. The need for innovation in technology, market strategies, and policy frameworks is underscored to ensure the industry's long-term competitiveness and sustainability. The research also emphasizes the role of collaborative efforts between academia, industry, and government in accelerating the commercialization of new technologies and improving the industry's overall technological competitiveness. The study provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing China's PV industry and offers actionable recommendations for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. |
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